APAC Brief: Oil Surges Back Above $100 as Vance Talks Fail and Trump Announces Naval Blockade
21-hour Vance-Iran talks in Pakistan fail. Trump announces naval blockade of Iranian ports. Physical crude near $150. Asian stocks fall. Ceasefire expires April 22 with no deal in sight.
The rollercoaster continues. Last week a ceasefire brought hope — oil crashed, markets rallied, Brent posted its steepest weekly loss since 2022. Then JD Vance flew to Pakistan for 21 hours of marathon face-to-face talks with Iran. They failed. Trump announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Physical crude surged back near $150. And the two-week ceasefire expires April 22 with no agreement on what comes next.
Commodity snapshot (as of April 12 — Day 45)
- Brent crude: surged above $100-103 on blockade news (had fallen to ~$96 on ceasefire)
- Physical/Dated Brent: surged near $150/barrel — fresh record
- WTI crude: jumped 4% on Sunday
- Ceasefire status: two-week ceasefire in effect, expires April 22
- Blockade: US Central Command says naval blockade of Iranian ports starts Monday
Vance talks fail after 21 hours
Vice President JD Vance led the highest-level US-Iran talks in nearly 50 years — face-to-face in Islamabad, brokered by Pakistan. After 21 hours of marathon negotiations, no deal was reached. Vance said the Iranian delegation "had not accepted American terms." Iran said it "did not expect a deal at the first meeting" and that Washington needs to do more to win trust. The Guardian reported Vance blamed Iran's refusal to give up its nuclear programme. The NYT headline: "How JD Vance Tried and Failed to End the War He Opposed." The failure throws the two-week ceasefire into doubt.
Trump announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
Hours after the talks collapsed, Trump announced a US naval blockade of all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas. US Central Command said the blockade begins Monday. Critically, the US said it "will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports" — a distinction from Trump's earlier vow to blockade the strait itself. But Iran's IRGC has vowed to retaliate. Reuters called it a "major, open-ended military endeavor" that could trigger fresh escalation.
India: migrant workers leaving Delhi as LPG crisis bites
India's cooking gas crisis has reached the point where migrant workers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are leaving Delhi because soaring LPG prices make city life impossible. The NRAI (restaurant association) in Bengaluru convened an emergency meeting on LPG alternatives. India has ramped up 5-kg LPG cylinder supply and is accelerating piped gas rollout, but commercial LPG availability remains a fraction of pre-crisis levels. The Indian rupee fell 49 paise to 93.32 against the dollar. The Sensex plunged 1,036-1,485 points (1.3-1.9%). Australia's PM Albanese departed on his second fuel security trip to Asia (Brunei, Malaysia) — launching a government ad campaign pushing Australians to reduce fuel consumption. Remote Indigenous communities are being hit hardest: a weekly shop in Ltyentye Apurte rose from $600 to $800. US intelligence indicated China is preparing weapons shipments — air defense systems — to Iran, dramatically escalating foreign involvement.
The ceasefire week: hope and crash
The two-week ceasefire agreed around April 7-8 briefly transformed markets. Brent posted its steepest weekly loss since August 2022, falling 12.7%. European markets surged. Oil plunged below $100. But the ceasefire was fragile from the start — both sides accused the other of violations. Iran stopped shipping through Hormuz entirely at one point. The IRGC said shipping had "stopped." And shipping companies remained reluctant to transit despite US warship escorts and mine-clearing operations. The real energy crisis, analysts say, begins after the ceasefire — logistics take longer to heal than headlines.
What to watch
The US naval blockade takes effect Monday. Iran's IRGC has vowed retaliation. The two-week ceasefire expires April 22 with no deal on what follows. Shipping companies remain reluctant to transit Hormuz even with US escorts. For Asia, the question is whether the blockade accelerates or delays reopening of energy flows. Every additional day of disruption pushes the region deeper into structural fuel dependence on alternative suppliers, coal, and emergency reserves.
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