Middle East Brief: US F-15 Shot Down Over Iran as War Enters Most Dangerous Phase
First US warplane shot down — F-15E downed over Iran, one crew missing. A-10 crashes near Hormuz. Iran hits Gulf refineries; 50+ killed across Gulf states. Dated Brent hits $140. Iran-Oman draft Hormuz protocol. April 6 deadline looms.
Day 35. The war just entered its most dangerous phase. A US F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran — the first American warplane lost in the conflict. An A-10 Warthog crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. One US crew member is missing. Iran is hitting Gulf refineries. And Trump is threatening to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages." The April 6 deadline is two days away.
Commodity snapshot (as of April 3)
- Dated Brent (physical): surged above $140/barrel — highest since 2008
- Brent futures: jumped 8% on Trump's "Stone Ages" threat
- WTI crude: surged 11% — biggest one-day jump in six years
- US service members killed: 13 total, with hundreds wounded
- Gulf civilian deaths: 50+ killed across Gulf nations by Iranian attacks
F-15E shot down — first US warplane loss
An F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over southern Iran on Friday — the first US warplane lost to enemy fire since the war began. One crew member was rescued in a dramatic search-and-rescue operation; the second is missing. Iran says it wants the missing crew member captured "alive." A second aircraft — an A-10 Warthog — crashed near the Strait of Hormuz; its pilot ejected and was rescued. Two search-and-rescue helicopters were also hit by Iranian fire, injuring their crews before returning to base. The shootdowns demonstrate that five weeks of strikes have not fully degraded Iran's air defense capability.
Iran hammers Gulf refineries
Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes across the Gulf overnight. A Kuwait desalination plant and oil refinery were hit by missile and drone strikes. Twelve people were injured by falling debris in the UAE, and an Abu Dhabi gas plant caught fire. In Israel, at least 17 people have been killed by missile fire since the war began. Saudi Arabia continues to intercept missiles aimed at Riyadh. The total death toll from Iranian strikes across Gulf nations has exceeded 50. Israeli strikes have destroyed approximately 70% of Iran's steel production capacity. The Karaj bridge (B1 northern bypass) — Iran's largest newly completed suspension bridge — was split in half, killing 8. Iran's Pasteur Institute, a century-old medical research centre, was also destroyed. The IEA has released a record 426 million barrels from strategic stockpiles across 35+ nations, calling it the "worst oil crisis in history."
Trump: "Back to the Stone Ages"
Trump's prime-time address on Wednesday — a 19-minute speech — threatened to hit Iran "extremely hard over the next two to three weeks" and promised to bomb the country "back to the Stone Ages." He did not define a clear path out of the conflict. The NYT reported the speech "claimed military success but offered no clear timeline." Politico quoted Republican members asking "What the hell did he just say?" US infrastructure strikes followed the speech — a bridge linking Tehran to Karaj was destroyed overnight.
Iran claims permanent sovereignty over Hormuz
Iran and Oman are drafting a joint protocol to "monitor" and manage Strait of Hormuz traffic. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated: "We are now in a state of war, and wartime conditions cannot be governed by peacetime rules." The NYT reported Iran says it will oversee strait traffic even in peacetime — a claim to permanent sovereignty over the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Iran is also charging tolls for transit. US intelligence leaked to Reuters warns Iran is unlikely to ease its grip because Hormuz is its only real leverage over the United States.
40 countries discuss reopening Hormuz — without the US
UK PM Starmer organized a call with approximately 40 countries to discuss joint action to reopen the strait, after Trump said it was "not for us" to resolve. At the UN, a Bahraini resolution to authorize force to reopen Hormuz was blocked by permanent Security Council members. Fortune reported that Iran's military may be "decimated" but it is winning the energy war — picking who gets cargoes through the strait and pocketing billions from the disruption.
What to watch
The April 6 deadline — Trump's ultimatum for Iran to reopen the strait — is Sunday. Markets are closed for Good Friday and Easter, meaning any escalation won't be priced in until Monday. The missing F-15 crew member could become a major political flashpoint. Iran has signaled it will not comply with the deadline, and the 82nd Airborne is positioned for ground operations or a Kharg Island seizure. The next 72 hours could define the war's trajectory.
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