Europe Brief: 40 Countries Discuss Reopening Hormuz as UK Faces 'Exact Date' It Could Run Out of Oil
UK PM Starmer hosts 40-country call on reopening Hormuz. JP Morgan maps exact date UK oil runs out. Dated Brent hits $140 — highest since 2008. Fuel rationing fears grow. EU considers all possibilities. Good Friday closures loom.
The UK just organized a 40-country call on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. JP Morgan published a map showing the exact date Britain could run out of oil. Dated Brent hit $140 — the highest since 2008. And Trump's speech promising to hit Iran "extremely hard" sent energy prices surging when Europe needed them to fall.
Commodity snapshot (as of April 3)
- Dated Brent (physical): surged above $140/barrel — highest since 2008
- Brent futures: jumped 8% after Trump's speech
- European gas (TTF): up 70%+ from pre-crisis, 50% weekly gain
- UK diesel: 187.4p/litre (up 35% since war began — record monthly pace)
- US gas: $4.08/gallon, diesel $5.51/gallon
40 countries discuss reopening Hormuz
UK Prime Minister Starmer hosted a videoconference with about 40 countries on Thursday to discuss joint action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Britain said the goal was to stop Iran holding "the global economy hostage." This came after Trump explicitly told allies to "take the lead" on the strait and said securing it was for others to resolve. At the UN Security Council, a resolution to authorize force to reopen the strait — drafted by Bahrain — hit roadblocks from permanent members opposed to the approach.
JP Morgan maps when UK oil runs out
JP Morgan published a map showing when the final Gulf oil shipments loaded before the Hormuz closure would arrive at various global destinations. For the UK, the timeline is alarmingly short — the last tankers are arriving this week, and after that Britain has only stockpile reserves as a buffer. The Mirror reported the "exact date" the UK could run out of oil based on current consumption and reserve levels. Energy experts warn that fuel rationing could be "on the cards" if the crisis drags on.
Fuel rationing fears intensify
A top Brussels official said the EU is considering "all possibilities" if the Middle East crisis continues, explicitly including fuel rationing across the bloc. The UK government continues to study contingency plans including priority fuel access for ambulances, new speed limits, £30 caps at petrol stations, and four-day working weeks. Oxford Economics warned that prolonged disruption would slow world GDP growth to 1.4% in 2026, with the UK particularly exposed. The Metro described the scenario facing Britain as "bleak."
Trump's speech crashes European optimism
Trump's 19-minute address shattered the peace rally that had lifted markets earlier in the week. Instead of announcing an end to the war, he threatened to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages" and said fighting would continue for two to three more weeks. Oil surged, stocks tumbled, and the brief moment of diplomatic optimism evaporated. The Dow fell, S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher in mixed trading. European markets will be closed for Good Friday, meaning any weekend escalation won't be priced in until Monday.
First ships transit Hormuz via Oman coastline
Three Omani-flagged tankers navigated the strait via a new route hugging Oman's coastline — the first major transits since the war began. A French CMA CGM container ship and a Japanese-owned tanker also crossed. But overall Hormuz traffic is still down 95% from pre-war levels, with 2,000+ ships stranded. Iran and Oman are discussing a "permit" system, and Iran's parliament voted on a bill to introduce transit tolls. The European TTF gas benchmark spiked to EUR 74/MWh at one point — a 35% intraday jump — after Iranian strikes caused "extensive" damage to Gulf refineries. TTF has risen 85% in 30 days. Ryanair's CEO warned the UK is the most vulnerable European country to jet fuel shortages due to its reliance on Kuwait.
What to watch
Good Friday closes European markets. The April 6 deadline — Trump's ultimatum for Iran to reopen the strait — is Sunday. US intelligence leaked to Reuters warns Iran is unlikely to comply because its grip on Hormuz is its only real leverage. An F-15E was shot down over Iran on Friday with a crew member missing, and Iran hit Gulf refineries overnight. The question for Europe is existential: if neither the US nor Iran reopens the strait, who will?
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