North America Brief: All Eyes on Trump's Wednesday Address as Gas Stays Above $4
Trump to address nation tonight on Iran — could signal war's end. US gas holds above $4/gallon. March was worst quarter for stocks in 4 years. Moody's recession odds at 49%. USPS raised shipping prices 8%. Canada diesel hits C$2.56 in PEI.
The entire North American economy is waiting on one speech. Trump will address the nation tonight with an "important update on Iran." He says the US will leave within two to three weeks. Gas is sitting above $4. Diesel is above $5. And March just closed as the worst quarter for stocks in nearly four years. Whatever Trump says tonight reshapes everything.
Commodity snapshot (as of April 1)
- US gas (national avg): $4.02+/gallon (holding above the $4 threshold)
- California gas: $5.88/gallon regular; diesel $7.26/gallon
- US diesel (national avg): above $5.00/gallon
- Brent crude: $106-116/barrel (volatile on conflicting signals)
- WTI crude: $101-103/barrel
- Brent in March: +51-60% — largest monthly gain on record
Trump's address tonight: the signal everyone is waiting for
President Trump will deliver a prime-time national address Wednesday at 9 PM Eastern with "an important update on Iran." He told reporters the US would be "leaving very soon" and could end military operations in two to three weeks — even if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. CBS reported Trump faces "critical decisions" in the month-old war. The address comes after the Dow surged 1,100+ points Tuesday on peace hopes and India Today called it "Trump's major April 1 address." Markets are pricing in a de-escalation — if Trump escalates instead, the selloff could be severe.
Gas above $4, diesel above $5 — and the cascade continues
US gas at $4.02 per gallon is now baked into household budgets. California diesel at $7.26 is crushing the trucking industry. National diesel above $5 is cascading through the supply chain: USPS temporarily raised shipping prices 8% on March 26. Long-haul truckers are rejecting unprofitable routes and pressing brokers for extra money. FedEx, JB Hunt, and CH Robinson are applying fuel surcharges that pass directly to consumers. The Department of Agriculture warns the trucking cost surge will show up in grocery prices within weeks.
Worst quarter in four years
Despite Tuesday's massive rally, Q1 2026 closed as the worst quarter for major indexes in nearly four years. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished deeply in the red after five consecutive weekly declines — the longest such streak in four years. The war consumed the quarter, from the initial shock in late February to the sustained oil crisis throughout March. Consumer confidence expectations declined even as present conditions held up — a classic pre-recession divergence.
Recession probability climbs — Goldman at 30%, Moody's at 49%
Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability to 30%, projecting Brent averaging $105 in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 — assuming six weeks of Hormuz disruption. Moody's is more bearish at 49%. US hiring has dropped to pandemic-era lows, with private payroll growth averaging just 18,000 monthly. Fed Chair Powell held rates steady, warning that the oil shock could simultaneously raise inflation and slow growth, leaving the central bank "frozen between conflicting mandates." The household saving rate has fallen to 4%. Analysts note a troubling divergence: oil traders are betting the war will end soon, but also betting the economic damage could last for years.
Farmers cutting corn acres as fertilizer surges 25%
The USDA's Prospective Plantings report shows farmers plan to cut corn and wheat acres while increasing soybeans and cotton — a direct reflection of the fertilizer cost shock. Prices for six of eight major fertilizers are higher, with four "significantly more expensive." Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins tried to calm fears, claiming 80% of farmers had already purchased spring fertilizer, so the impact "shouldn't be too disruptive." But 54 agricultural groups wrote to Trump demanding relief, and Reuters reported farmers in the US and Canada are struggling to find supply as planting looms. In Canada, Ontario gasoline prices are set to rise further on April 1 and April 2, with the steepest single-day hike yet hitting Canadian consumers overnight. Canadian farmers are bracing for higher business costs with consumers expected to feel the impact at checkout.
What to watch
Everything depends on tonight's address. If Trump announces a withdrawal and a path to reopening Hormuz, markets will explode higher and gas prices could begin a slow retreat. If he announces an escalation — or a withdrawal that leaves Hormuz closed — gas above $4 becomes the floor, not the ceiling. The April 6 deadline for Iran looms. The EIA still does not project gas below $3 until after 2027 even in optimistic scenarios. And the fertilizer shock means grocery prices will rise regardless of what happens to oil.
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