Europe Brief: Shell's April Warning Becomes Reality as EU Dusts Off 2022 Crisis Playbook

Shell's CEO warned that Europe could face fuel shortages in April. April is here. The last tankers loaded before Hormuz closed are arriving this week. After that, Europe is on its own. The EU is reviving the emergency measures it used in 2022 when Russia slashed gas deliveries. And the Eurozone just posted its hottest inflation reading in over three years.

Commodity snapshot (as of April 1)

Brent crude: $106-116/barrel (whipsawing between invasion fears and peace hopes)
European gas (TTF): exceeded EUR 55/MWh — up 70%+ since the conflict began
Eurozone inflation: 2.5% (highest monthly pace since Oct 2022)
UK heating oil: 104.1p/litre — highest since records began (1989)
EU gas storage: 28% average; Netherlands 5.8% (decade low), Germany 22% (record low)

The last tankers are arriving — then what?

The final fuel shipments from the Gulf are arriving now. The tanker Maetiga — carrying the last known jet fuel shipment from the Middle East to the UK — is due this week. JP Morgan projects this is among the final Gulf oil shipments reaching Western destinations globally. Argus Media expects the last kerosene shipments around April 10. After that, European stockpiles become the only buffer. UK diesel has hit 183p per litre (up 40p in a month), with petrol averaging 152p. For every $10 rise in oil prices, UK motorists pay roughly 7p per litre more. PM Starmer admitted "the government can't do it on its own" while 1,338 UK traders are reportedly on the brink of collapse over diesel costs.

EU revives 2022 crisis playbook

The European Commission is formally considering reviving the energy crisis measures it deployed when Russia slashed gas deliveries in 2022 — including coordinated demand reduction, emergency gas purchasing mechanisms, and joint storage mandates. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen asked governments to delay non-emergency refinery maintenance, curb oil demand, and explore alternatives. The EU lowered its minimum gas storage target from 90% to 75% on March 20 to avoid panic buying, but the refilling season ahead looks brutal with Asian buyers competing for the same LNG cargoes and offering higher prices.

Slovenia rations at 50 litres, Qatar LNG plant halted

Slovenia became the first EU country to implement fuel rationing, capping purchases at 50 litres per day. The UK is drawing up contingency plans including priority fuel access for ambulances, new motorway speed limits, potential £30-per-visit caps at petrol stations, and four-day working weeks. The gas situation worsened sharply after Iran's attack on Qatari LNG infrastructure forced Qatar to halt production at the world's top LNG plant — European gas prices jumped 45% on that single event. Algeria is acting as a partial lifeline but cannot compensate for lost Qatari supply. Bulgaria has locked in cheaper gas from Azerbaijan at EUR 34.27/MWh for April. EasyJet is warning of £40 surcharges on holiday flights as jet fuel dries up.

Eurozone inflation forces ECB dilemma

Consumer prices jumped from 1.9% to 2.5% in a single month — the fastest acceleration since October 2022. Markets now price a 76% probability of an ECB rate hike by June and 36% chance as early as April. German inflation hit 2.8%. The ECB faces a lose-lose: raising rates fights inflation but deepens the slowdown; holding steady lets energy-driven inflation become self-reinforcing. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink outlined two extreme scenarios: oil at $40 if the war ends cleanly, or above $150 for years with a global recession. UK Easter eggs are already 9% more expensive at an average £3.27 — a small but telling indicator. Sainsbury's CEO said Easter shopping would be unaffected, but the broader industry warns prices will spike before summer.

Markets rally, but Trump widens transatlantic rift

European markets rose with the global rally — the Dow surged 1,100 points and Brent fell $3 on unconfirmed reports Iran was ready to negotiate. But Trump's repeated attacks on allies are widening the transatlantic rift. He told Europe to "go get your own oil," mocked the Royal Navy, and Rubio said the US would need to "reexamine" its relationship with NATO. France, Spain, and Italy have restricted airspace to US warplanes, triggering further Trump outbursts. Energy Commissioner Jorgensen warned that prices "will not immediately return to normal even if the Iran war ends," citing structural tightness in fuel markets.

What to watch

Trump's national address Wednesday evening is the pivot point. If the US withdraws without reopening Hormuz, Europe faces the scenario Shell's CEO warned about. The April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the strait looms. UK food inflation forecasts suggest the damage will persist into 2027 even with a quick resolution, because fertilizer shortages will affect next year's harvest. April is the month Europe discovers whether this is a crisis or a catastrophe.

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