APAC Brief: Australia Fuel Excise Cut Kicks In as Asian Markets Rally on Peace Hopes
Australia's 26c/litre excise cut takes effect. Prices already falling at Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane pumps. Asian shares jump sharply on Trump's exit signals. Missile hits oil tanker off Qatar. India diversifies LPG to Africa.
The first tangible relief for APAC consumers arrived today. Australia's fuel excise cut is now live, with prices already falling at the pump. Asian markets surged on Trump's signals that the US will leave Iran within weeks. But the physical war continues — a missile struck an oil tanker off Qatar's coast overnight, and the strait remains closed.
Commodity snapshot (as of April 1)
- Brent crude: $106-116/barrel (volatile, spiking on invasion fears then falling on peace hopes)
- WTI crude: $101-103/barrel
- Gold: continuing its monthly decline — 5th-largest fall in 50 years
- Dubai physical crude: ~$126/barrel (Asian premium persists)
- Oil for March: +51-60% — largest monthly surge on record
Australia: excise cut live, prices already dropping
Australia's 50% fuel excise cut took effect at midnight, saving drivers roughly 26.3 cents per litre on both petrol and diesel for three months. Petrol stations across Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane moved unexpectedly early to pass on the cut. Adelaide saw the biggest decline — unleaded down 24.9 cents, diesel down 21.3 cents. Victoria and Tasmania went further, waiving transit fares entirely in response to the fuel crisis. However, economists warn the cut could keep inflation higher for longer — a "sting in the tail" that may ultimately leave Australians worse off. A key risk: two of Australia's largest jet fuel sources (South Korea and China) are eyeing restrictions on fuel exports, potentially cutting off supply. Regional businesses and farmers report the excise cut is "not a silver bullet."
Asian markets rally sharply
Asian shares jumped sharply on April 1. South Korea's Kospi surged 5.5%, leading the region after entering bear market territory last week. Japan's Nikkei rose 3.9%. India's Sensex surged 1,899 points to 73,847. Jakarta rallied strongly. The gains followed the Dow's best day in 10 months (up 1,100+ points) after Trump said the US would be "leaving very soon." But the rally is fragile — a Wall Street Journal report suggested Trump may exit the Middle East even if Hormuz is not reopened, raising the question of whether this is genuine de-escalation or a negotiating tactic. March closed as the worst quarter in nearly four years.
Missile strikes oil tanker off Qatar
An Iranian missile struck an oil tanker off Qatar's coast overnight, though no injuries were reported. This follows the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salmi being hit off Dubai on March 30 and Iranian drones striking Kuwait International Airport fuel tanks on March 31. The continued attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure underscore that the war's physical toll is escalating even as diplomatic signals suggest a possible wind-down. Roughly 2,000 ships remain stranded in the region.
India: jet fuel doubles, then government reverses hike within hours
India's aviation turbine fuel prices more than doubled to a record Rs 2.07 lakh per kilolitre on April 1 — a 114.5% surge — before the government reversed the hike for domestic flights within hours to shield consumers. Commercial LPG cylinder prices rose Rs 195.50 per 19-kg cylinder. Two Indian-flagged LPG carriers (BW TYR and BW ELM) carrying roughly 94,000 tonnes of cooking gas crossed the conflict zone and are expected to dock at Mumbai and New Mangalore — but that cargo equals only about one day of national demand. Households across India are ditching hot food in favour of cold meals as the cooking gas shortage worsens. States have been told to crack down on LPG black marketing, and reports of rising sales of firewood and cow dung cakes signal a troubling shift to polluting alternatives.
Southeast Asia: Sri Lanka cuts to 4-day work week, Philippines declares energy emergency
The Philippines became the first country to declare a national energy emergency — Manila's streets are emptying as fuel prices post one of the world's sharpest increases. Sri Lanka cut its work week to four days, rationed fuel, raised power tariffs (households up 7.2%, industry up 8.7%), and declared all Wednesdays off to conserve energy. India sent 38,000 metric tonnes of emergency fuel aid to Sri Lanka. Myanmar limited car drivers to alternate days. South Korea is considering nationwide driving curbs if oil prices climb further and has asked airlines to redirect export-bound jet fuel back to the domestic market. Japan announced it will relax rules from April to boost coal-fired power for one year. China sent over 360,000 barrels of diesel to the Philippines and Vietnam despite its own export ban — a striking show of geopolitical influence. Southeast Asian currencies are in what analysts describe as an "epic collapse."
What to watch
Trump's national address Wednesday evening (Thursday morning in APAC) is the single most important event. If he announces a withdrawal without reopening the strait, Asia faces a prolonged supply crisis as the region's largest oil and gas source remains blocked. The April 11 expiry of the US sanctions waiver on Russian oil is critical for South Korea and Sri Lanka. Easter travel this weekend will be the first real test of Australia's excise cut at the pump.
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