Middle East Brief: Trump Says US Will "Leave" Iran as Kuwaiti Tanker Struck Off Dubai
Trump signals US exit in 2-3 weeks. Kuwait airport struck. 2,000 ships stranded. UN warns 45M face hunger. 82nd Airborne arrives. Pakistan to host talks.
Day 31 of the conflict. Trump says the US will "leave very soon" and scheduled a national address for Wednesday. A Kuwaiti tanker was struck off Dubai. The UN is warning of a hunger catastrophe affecting 45 million people. And Iran's president says Tehran has the "necessary will" to end the war — on its own terms.
Commodity snapshot (as of March 31)
- Brent crude: $105.13/barrel (retreating from $115+ on peace hopes)
- WTI crude: $102.12/barrel
- Gulf oil exports: still down 60%+ from pre-war levels
- Shipping insurance through Hormuz: up 300%+
- Brent monthly gain: +51% — largest on record
Trump: "We will be leaving very soon"
President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on March 31 that the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks. Hours later, the White House announced Trump would deliver a national address Wednesday evening with "an important update on Iran." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the end of the war could be near, signaling potential for direct talks with Iran's leadership. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said reopening the Strait of Hormuz is "not just a US problem set" — a striking statement that reopening the strait may not be a precondition for US withdrawal.
Gulf under sustained bombardment
The physical war is intensifying even as diplomacy picks up. A Kuwaiti tanker, the Al Salmi, loaded with 2 million barrels of oil, was struck by a drone off Dubai on March 30. Iranian drones then struck Kuwait International Airport fuel storage tanks on March 31, sparking a large fire. The UAE intercepted 16 ballistic missiles and 42 drones in a single 24-hour period on March 29. Kuwait has now faced a cumulative 307 ballistic missiles and 616 drones since the war began. Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed two drones on March 31. Human Rights Watch documented Iranian strikes on civilian targets across the Gulf, including hotels and airports in Dubai and Bahrain. An Indian worker was killed in a strike on a Kuwait desalination plant. The 82nd Airborne Division has begun arriving in the Middle East, giving Trump more options including possible seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal.
UN warns 45 million more face acute hunger
The UN World Food Programme warned the Middle East war could push 45 million more people into acute hunger and cause the worst disruption to humanitarian work since Covid. The FAO's Chief Economist said the conflict has triggered one of the most rapid and severe disruptions to global commodity flows in recent times. Gulf food imports remain disrupted by approximately 70%. The Council on Foreign Relations flagged the "hidden front" of the war: food, water, and fertilizer — with about one-third of the world's fertilizer normally shipping through Hormuz.
Iran rejects US proposals, submits counter-demands
Iran dismissed US peace proposals as "unrealistic" and "one-sided." Tehran submitted a five-point counter-proposal demanding: an end to all attacks, mechanisms to prevent war resumption, compensation for infrastructure destruction, and the inclusion of Hezbollah and Lebanon in any deal. Iran's president said Tehran has the "necessary will" to end the war as long as conditions are met. An Iranian minister separately stated there was "no intention of negotiating for now," though this was partly contradicted by backchannel diplomatic activity.
Pakistan to host US-Iran talks
Pakistan announced it will soon host talks between the US and Iran, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt forming a supporting team for backchannel negotiations. China and Pakistan jointly called for an immediate ceasefire and the restoration of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It remains unclear whether the talks will be direct or indirect. The diplomatic gap is enormous — Iran wants comprehensive reconstruction guarantees and multi-party involvement, while the US has focused narrowly on the strait and military objectives.
Strait blockade: 2,000 ships stranded, Iran plans transit tolls
Approximately 2,000 ships are stranded in the region amid the partial blockade, according to the International Maritime Organization. Ship traffic through the strait has dropped from over 100 per day pre-war to a handful. Iran's Parliament approved a plan to impose tolls on all ships crossing the strait and ban transit by American and Israeli ships. One vessel reportedly paid $2 million for the right to transit. Iran has mined the strait with Maham 3 and Maham 7 limpet mines. Saudi Arabia is diverting oil to its Red Sea port of Yanbu — tanker traffic at Saudi Red Sea ports increased from 97 vessels on March 2 to 134 on March 15. The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline is running at maximum capacity of 1.8 million bpd, up from 1 million pre-crisis. But drone attacks on Fujairah port have disrupted loadings even there.
What to watch
Trump's Wednesday address is the most consequential moment of the conflict so far for markets and geopolitics. Will the US withdraw without reopening the strait? Hegseth's comments suggest it's possible. Pakistan-hosted talks could provide the first real diplomatic channel. But Iran's counter-demands and continued missile attacks suggest a ceasefire is not imminent. The humanitarian cost is mounting — 45 million people face hunger, Gulf food prices have spiked 40-120%, and April will test every food security plan in the region.
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