North America Brief: Gas Nears $4/Gallon as Wall Street Posts Worst Day Since War Began

Gas is a dollar more than it was a month ago. Wall Street just had its worst day since the war began. The largest SPR release in history isn't working. And the EIA quietly admitted gas won't drop below $3 until after 2027. The economic reality of the Hormuz closure is now hitting American wallets directly.

Commodity snapshot (as of March 26)

US gas (national avg): $3.98/gallon (up from $2.98 a month ago)
California gas: $5.83/gallon
Brent crude: $98.03/barrel
WTI crude: $90.66/barrel
Fertilizer (nitrogen): up ~30% since war began

Gas nears $4/gallon — up $1 in one month

The national average for regular gasoline hit $3.98 on March 26, a full dollar higher than just four weeks ago. California leads at $5.83, while even Texas — typically the cheapest market — sits at $3.61. A PolitiFact-reviewed study projects the average US household will pay up to $857 more for gas for the rest of the year. The psychological $4 barrier is likely to break this week.

Wall Street's worst day since the war began

Markets cratered on March 26. The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, the Dow dropped 450 points, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.3% into official correction territory — down 10% from its record. Brent crude jumped above $105 intraday. Even traditional safe havens slumped: bonds sold off and gold dropped. CNN reported investors have "few places to hide." The initial optimism over Trump's extended deadline evaporated as ceasefire hopes faded.

Record SPR release isn't enough

The Trump administration ordered the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on March 11 — the largest US release in history, equaling 1.4 million barrels per day. This represents 41% of the 415 million barrels currently held, and the SPR was already only 60% full. The IEA coordinated a broader 400-million-barrel global release. Despite all of this, gas prices have continued climbing. The reserves are buying time, not solving the problem.

EIA: gas won't drop below $3 until after 2027

The Energy Information Administration's own projections do not foresee gasoline prices falling below $3/gallon at any point through the end of 2027 — even in optimistic scenarios. The oil industry has warned that even if the strait reopens tomorrow, an enhanced risk premium is permanent. Gulf production facilities are damaged. Saudi Aramco's largest refinery is offline. Rebuilding takes years, not weeks.

Fertilizer crisis threatens spring planting

Benchmark nitrogen fertilizer costs at US ports have risen nearly 30% since the war began. About one-third of global fertilizer trade normally passes through Hormuz and is now stuck. US farmers entering spring corn planting season face the single largest variable cost increase in decades, on already-tight margins. Bipartisan senators warned of "significant food security consequences." The fertilizer shock will show up in grocery prices within 8-12 weeks.

Canada: $1.73/litre despite being a net exporter

Canadian pump prices hit approximately C$1.73/litre, near record highs. Despite being a net crude exporter, Canada pays global prices for refined products — Brent increases hit Canadian consumers within days. There is no actual supply shortage in North America. The price increases are driven entirely by global oil market dynamics and the risk premium of a closed strait.

What to watch

Trump's April 6 deadline is the new focal point. The API confirmed US production increases "would not happen overnight." Peace talks may begin in Pakistan. But every additional day of closure pushes the SPR closer to dangerous levels and food price inflation closer to the grocery aisle. The question is no longer if prices rise further — it's how much.

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