Europe Brief: Shell Warns of April Fuel Shortages as UK Reviews Rationing Plans
Shell CEO says Europe faces energy shortages by April. UK government reviews emergency petrol rationing. Goldman Sachs raises gas price forecasts. France approaches 35 countries for a Hormuz naval mission. European airlines hike fares as jet fuel surges 80%.
Shell's CEO just said the quiet part out loud: Europe could face energy and fuel shortages as soon as April if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen. The UK is reviewing petrol rationing plans. Goldman Sachs raised its gas price forecasts. And European airlines are hiking fares as jet fuel costs surge 80%. The continent is sliding toward stagflation.
Commodity snapshot (as of March 26)
- Brent crude: $98.03/barrel
- European gas (TTF): EUR 58/MWh (up from ~EUR 30 pre-crisis)
- Gold: $4,406/oz
- UK diesel: 169.8p/litre (up from 142.4p)
- German petrol: EUR 2.32/litre
Shell CEO: shortages possible by April
Shell's chief executive warned that Europe could face energy and fuel shortages within weeks without a Hormuz reopening. Shell is working directly with governments to address the supply crisis, which has already triggered energy rationing in parts of Asia. This is the first time a major oil company CEO has put a specific timeline on European shortages — and April is less than a week away.
UK reviews petrol rationing plans
The UK government is reviewing emergency petrol and diesel rationing plans for the first time since the 1970s. UK diesel prices have surged from 142.4p to 169.8p per litre. A Labour Treasury minister notably did not dismiss the possibility of implementing rationing. Priority access plans are being drawn up for emergency services, healthcare, and food distribution.
Goldman Sachs raises gas price forecast
Goldman Sachs raised its Summer 2026 TTF gas price forecast to EUR 72/MWh, up from EUR 63. In an adverse scenario where Hormuz flows remain depressed for 10 weeks, the average could exceed EUR 89/MWh — approaching the 2022 crisis levels that triggered Europe's cost-of-living emergency. European gas prices have already risen 50%+ from pre-crisis levels.
France courts 35 nations for Hormuz naval mission
France's military chief held talks with approximately 35 countries to build a coalition for a naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but only after the US-Israeli war on Iran ends. NATO confirmed 22 nations have joined a freedom-of-navigation initiative, though no operational mechanism exists yet. Meanwhile, European NATO allies continue to reject Trump's demand to send warships, with Germany calling the conflict "nothing to do with NATO."
Airlines hike fares as jet fuel surges 80%
The Gulf supplies about 50% of Europe's aviation kerosene imports. Jet fuel prices have surged over 80%, forcing fare increases across the industry. Air France-KLM raised long-haul fares effective March 11. Lufthansa added 40 extra flights to Asia to compensate for Gulf route disruptions. Finnair warned of potential jet fuel supply exhaustion. Ryanair's CEO said a 6-9 month closure would create "serious problems" for European aviation.
Spain leads EU emergency response
EU member states are diverging sharply in their crisis response. Spain has announced more than EUR 5 billion in energy aid — the largest package in the bloc. France has provided no direct consumer support. Germany's energy-intensive industrial sectors are struggling under cost pressure. Euronews reported that the crisis is pushing Europe toward stagflation: stagnant growth combined with rising inflation.
What to watch
Trump's April 6 deadline looms. German-brokered peace talks may happen in Pakistan "very soon." But every day the strait stays closed, Europe burns through reserves it took decades to build. Shell's CEO warning should be taken seriously.
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