North America Brief: Gas at $3.90 and Climbing as EV Searches Surge 20% Since War Began
US gas hits $3.90/gallon — highest in three years. California above $5. EV searches jump 20% since the conflict started. Stocks rally on Trump's 15-point plan but Iran rejects it. Farmers face fertilizer costs double pre-war levels. Canada debates emergency oil sands expansion.
The US gas price story is no longer a Middle East abstraction — it is a kitchen table reality. The national average hit $3.90 per gallon on Tuesday, the highest in nearly three years. California crossed $5. And while Trump's 15-point peace plan briefly sent oil down 6%, Iran rejected it within hours. American consumers are now paying a direct war tax at the pump, with grocery aisles next.
Commodity snapshot (as of March 25)
- WTI crude: $90.06/barrel
- Brent crude: $97.62/barrel
- US gas average: $3.90/gallon (highest since mid-2023)
- Gold: $4,405/oz
- Wheat: $5.89/bushel
- Corn: $4.60/bushel
Gas prices: the geography of pain
The national average masks enormous regional variation. California leads at $5.08/gallon, driven by its unique fuel blend requirements and refinery constraints. But the fastest increases are in the Midwest and Southeast, where prices have jumped $0.80-1.00 in three weeks. Rural communities that depend on diesel for agriculture and transport are being hit hardest.
The political math is brutal for the White House. Every 10-cent increase in gas costs American households roughly $120/year. At current levels, the average family is paying $500-700 more annually than before the conflict. Trump's approval ratings on economic issues are dropping as the pump price rises.
EV searches surge 20%
Americans are voting with their Google searches. Electric vehicle queries are up 20% since the conflict began, according to CarEdge. Tesla and Ford dealer websites report increased traffic for EV models. The irony: Trump has rolled back EV regulations, reduced fuel efficiency standards, and pushed automakers toward gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. The war his administration started is now driving consumers toward the technology he has tried to kill.
Globally, EVs account for one in five new car sales. In Norway, just seven traditional petrol cars were sold in January. The US remains at 7.8% EV penetration — well behind Europe and China — but the Hormuz crisis may accelerate adoption faster than any policy could.
Farmers: fertilizer crisis threatens spring planting
US farmers face a dual squeeze: diesel costs for machinery and transport, plus fertilizer prices that have surged 60% since the conflict began. Urea — the most commonly used nitrogen fertilizer — has hit $600 per tonne, up from roughly $375 pre-war. The Middle East produces approximately 40% of global nitrogen fertilizers, and that supply is severely disrupted.
The timing is catastrophic. Spring planting season in the Midwest runs from April through May. Farmers must make purchasing decisions now for inputs they will need in weeks. The Farm Bureau reports that some fertilizer costs have doubled. If farmers reduce application rates to save money, yields will fall — and food prices will rise further in Q3 and Q4.
Corn at $4.60/bushel and wheat at $5.89/bushel are already elevated. These are input costs for animal feed, bread, cereal, pasta, and dozens of other staples. The USDA has not yet revised its 2026 food inflation forecast, but private estimates range from 5-8%.
Wall Street: rally or trap?
US stocks rallied Tuesday on Trump's peace plan headlines. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, with energy stocks and defense contractors leading. But the rally looks fragile: Iran rejected the plan, the strait remains closed, and Goldman Sachs warned that Brent could snap back to $110+ if talks collapse.
Gold's trajectory tells the real story. After hitting $5,277 at the start of the conflict, it crashed 13% to around $4,405. That is not a safe haven working as designed — it is a market that overshot on panic and is now searching for fair value. For American investors, cash and short-term Treasuries remain the steadiest positions in an uncertain environment.
What to watch
Trump's Friday deadline. Whether the House passes the emergency fuel subsidy bill introduced last week. Spring planting decisions in the Midwest. And the March CPI data (due April 10) which will be the first official measure of the conflict's inflation impact on US consumers.
Track live prices and your city's cost impact on the ShelfShock dashboard.